BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Samantha Morton in The Messenger
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz in Nine
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Saphire

ALTERNATES
Julianne Moore in A Single Man
Diane Kruger in Iglourious Basterds
Marion Cotillard in Nine

As the race currently stands, Mo'Nique is way out front. But don't let this fool you. Her recent attitude towards the New York Film critics (she denied to show) and her money-hungry tatics ("I needs to be paid") might not sit well with voters who want their winner to have a little humility. However, this never stopped them from giving George C. Scott or Marlon Brando trophies in their respective years, despite their snubbing for citation, or Woody Allen and Katharine Hepburn- both who have been generously rewarded by the academy, but never made a single appearance to accept their Oscars. Mo'Nique nails her role to the point that you never forget her, and it is the only category voters might knight the film.

Farmiga and Kendrick both have received equal praise for their performances opposite George Clooney's vehicle, though Kendrick is picking up more precursors. Farmiga, however, had a fabulous year, also starring in the horror comedy Orphan, and proving her versatility as a rising character actress by remaining reliable in all her roles. The academy recently has placed 2 ladies in this category from the same film quite a bit- and since 2000 this has happened five times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2008).

Cruz is only on here because SAG and Golden Globe listed her. It would seem almost barbaric not to list Cotillard as another contender, but her campaign has opted to push her in lead- otherwise, she'd be a shoo-in (which she still might). Cruz has one big dance number and her recent Oscar win to help her ride the wave of Nine, though the movie is getting disastrous reviews.

Samantha Morton is my odd-ball nominee. But she's been the odd-ball nominee twice before. In 1999 in Woody Allen's Sweet & Lowdown she managed to trump Cameron Diaz (Being John Malkovich) in the Supporting Actress category for her mute role opposite Oscar-nominee Sean Penn. It was a big surprise. Even bigger was in 2003 when she managed to get over Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain) and Uma Thurman (Kill Bill, Vol. 1) by landing in the Best Actress race for her tender work in Jim Sheridan's In America, where she landed no precursors or Globe or SAG nod, but slipped in. Why can't she do the same for playing a mother who loses her son in The Messenger, which currently has the buzz for Woody Harrelson? It's a risky pick, but the academy warms up to her alot. She has no SAG or Globe nod, but it doesn't seem to matter based on her past.

Only Julianne Moore can really unseat any of these ladies (I'm ignoring SAG and Kruger's nod for now). But Moore is only in her film 10 minutes, and she's no Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love) or Beatrice Straight (Network)- both those ladies won Supporting Actress Oscars for performances less then 10 minutes. Moore, if nominated, ironically would give Mo'Nique the biggest run for her money. She has been nominated four times in the past 12 years to no avail, and recently in 2002 she was nodded for Lead and Supporting Actress, and lost twice (to Nicole Kidman and Catherine Zeta-Jones, respectfully). Colin Firth is getting more raves for his lead performance in A Single Man, but Moore might slip in- she missed SAG, but got in for the Globe. We'll see.