Sandra Bullock - Really?

Can she really win the Best Actress Oscar for "The Blind Side" over Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"? According to recent press releases, Bullock's campaign is working hot and wild for the popular actress to take home her first golden boy. Her Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress (Drama) in the football story is all but sealed, since nobody is talking about Carey Mulligan anymore. If she wins the SAG, are Streep's chances for her third overdue statue over?

This sickens me because I like Bullock alot, but her performance doesn't come close to Streep, Sidibe's or Mulligan for that matter. It's a cute role, with a southern accent and plenty of relish, but it just doesn't feel right. Also, people comparing Bullock's potential victory to Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich" need to do their homework. Roberts' film was a Best Picture nominee, and I don't see "The Blind Side" making the cut. Roberts also was up for her third trophy, while this will be Bullock's first time at bat. And normally in order to win Best Actress you either have to a) Be in a very popular film that has excellent reviews across the board, or b) Be in a mediocre film but give a performance that is leagues beyond the rest of the product. Bullock's movie, while popular, is not getting excellent reviews. And her performance is not legendary or deserving of such fawning. Not that this stopped voters in the past from honoring such work (We can all throw up together on Gwyneth Patlrow's undeserved win in 1998 for "Shakespeare in Love"). But now Bullock's campaign has got 20/20 to do a segment devoted ENTIRELY to her film. Why? What is this movie showing us that hasn't been shown before? Rich white person saves poor illiterate black person? I guess since "Precious" is also about an illiterate black person being saved, the academy should just place a theme on this year's Oscars: OBAMA, CHANGE and HELPING OUT THE BROTHAS & SISTAS. I mean come on!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Samantha Morton in The Messenger
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz in Nine
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Saphire

ALTERNATES
Julianne Moore in A Single Man
Diane Kruger in Iglourious Basterds
Marion Cotillard in Nine

As the race currently stands, Mo'Nique is way out front. But don't let this fool you. Her recent attitude towards the New York Film critics (she denied to show) and her money-hungry tatics ("I needs to be paid") might not sit well with voters who want their winner to have a little humility. However, this never stopped them from giving George C. Scott or Marlon Brando trophies in their respective years, despite their snubbing for citation, or Woody Allen and Katharine Hepburn- both who have been generously rewarded by the academy, but never made a single appearance to accept their Oscars. Mo'Nique nails her role to the point that you never forget her, and it is the only category voters might knight the film.

Farmiga and Kendrick both have received equal praise for their performances opposite George Clooney's vehicle, though Kendrick is picking up more precursors. Farmiga, however, had a fabulous year, also starring in the horror comedy Orphan, and proving her versatility as a rising character actress by remaining reliable in all her roles. The academy recently has placed 2 ladies in this category from the same film quite a bit- and since 2000 this has happened five times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2008).

Cruz is only on here because SAG and Golden Globe listed her. It would seem almost barbaric not to list Cotillard as another contender, but her campaign has opted to push her in lead- otherwise, she'd be a shoo-in (which she still might). Cruz has one big dance number and her recent Oscar win to help her ride the wave of Nine, though the movie is getting disastrous reviews.

Samantha Morton is my odd-ball nominee. But she's been the odd-ball nominee twice before. In 1999 in Woody Allen's Sweet & Lowdown she managed to trump Cameron Diaz (Being John Malkovich) in the Supporting Actress category for her mute role opposite Oscar-nominee Sean Penn. It was a big surprise. Even bigger was in 2003 when she managed to get over Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain) and Uma Thurman (Kill Bill, Vol. 1) by landing in the Best Actress race for her tender work in Jim Sheridan's In America, where she landed no precursors or Globe or SAG nod, but slipped in. Why can't she do the same for playing a mother who loses her son in The Messenger, which currently has the buzz for Woody Harrelson? It's a risky pick, but the academy warms up to her alot. She has no SAG or Globe nod, but it doesn't seem to matter based on her past.

Only Julianne Moore can really unseat any of these ladies (I'm ignoring SAG and Kruger's nod for now). But Moore is only in her film 10 minutes, and she's no Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love) or Beatrice Straight (Network)- both those ladies won Supporting Actress Oscars for performances less then 10 minutes. Moore, if nominated, ironically would give Mo'Nique the biggest run for her money. She has been nominated four times in the past 12 years to no avail, and recently in 2002 she was nodded for Lead and Supporting Actress, and lost twice (to Nicole Kidman and Catherine Zeta-Jones, respectfully). Colin Firth is getting more raves for his lead performance in A Single Man, but Moore might slip in- she missed SAG, but got in for the Globe. We'll see.

BEST ACTRESS

Best Actress is going to be an interesting battle, more so because there is one spot that no one can agree upon. Below are my predictions and commentary:

• Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
• Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
• Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
• Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Saphire"
• Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"

It can be agreed upon that Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe and Streep are all locks. All have strong critic support and plenty of precursor attention. Sandra Bullock has had a huge year with the success of "The Proposal" as well, earning her the infamous kudo from Entertainment Weekly as "Entertainer of the Year". Though her performance in the football drama "The Blind Side" is critically divided, there's no doubt that the film is on its way to making more then $200 million domestically, a HUGE deal for a female driven drama. On top of that, Bullock has been working in Hollywood for more then 15 years and has never been nominated. That's saying a lot for an actress who kept the ball rolling in "Speed" (we know Reeves wasn't making us care), charmed us in "While You Were Sleeping", and made us look at her with more serious notion when she played a self-absorbed pain in "Crash".

Mulligan has the National Board of Review award, and has implemented herself as the "new dewy young thing" for moviegoers, and it helps she's in her early twenties and British. They love their British gals. Whether she beats Bullock at the Golden Globes is another battle.

Sidibe may be coming up short in critic awards (Las Vegas doesn't count), but there's no denying that she is acing the precursor nominations (Globe & SAG remembered her), and is in a Best Picture frontrunner ("Precious" will make the cut in February). Also her screen debut, let me tell you, is incredible and she comes off naturally brilliant. In.

Finally Meryl Streep will land her 16th nomination for playing famous chef Julia Child in the hit "Julie & Julia". She has received the best reviews by a lead female actress this year. Despite naysayers saying it's too light to win, she is long overdue for a third trophy. Her New York Film Critics award for best actress bodes well for her chances, and if she wins the Comedy/Musical Globe in two weeks, they skyrocket. Her main hurdle is Bullock, not Mulligan. Bullock has a strong publicity market going for her. More on this soon!

Mirren is the fifth spot. Her possible rivals to unseat her are:

Emily Blunt in "The Young Victoria" (Globe nominee, but lack of support for movie makes her chances grim. No SAG nod)

Marion Cotillard in "Nine" (Globe nominee, but her category confusion (she's being pushed for lead) will cause her to lose votes to Penelope Cruz. "Nine" sucks big time.

Tilda Swinton in "Julia" (Runner-up precusors, and possible National Society of Film Critics winner but no one has seen the film and its too quirky).

PREDICTED WINNER: Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"

Predictions coming in...

Be the first to see my full-throttle predictions for the 2009 Academy Awards! It's been a dismal year for the movies, but we still have a interesting year on our plate. Stay tuned...